<p>(a) As enhancement increases so too does the epidemic period observed in each model. There is also a trend towards longer periods at lower . However, these trends both appear to be stronger in model (ii). (b) The risk of stochastic extinction within the model is shown as the proportion of time in each model that the prevalence of a particular serotype exists above a specific threshold. In both models there is a low risk of extinction but the risk increases with enhancement; again, this trend is stronger in model (ii).</p
<p>Each bar in the chart represents an average across 30 simulation runs for a given parameter setti...
<p>We show the medians of , evaluated using stochastic runs for the baseline (SIR model without fea...
Estimates under constant environmental conditions fall on the vertical dashed line, representing end...
<p>For each parameterization, a 10 year excerpt from a typical simulation is shown. Graphs on the le...
<p>(<b><i>A</i></b>) Increasing host population structure results in a significant reduction in epid...
<p>(<b><i>A</i></b>) The epidemiological effects of temporary cross-immunity, , on mean prevalence l...
For infections that become endemic in a population, the process may appear stable over a long time s...
Measles epidemics in human populations exhibit what is perhaps the best empirically characterized, a...
For infections that become endemic in a population, the process may appear stable over a long time s...
Abstract. A model for the spread of an infectious disease in a population with constant recruit-ment...
Ever since the pattern of localized extinction associated with measles was discovered by Bartlett in...
<p>(a) Successful control, with fewer than 10% of hosts removed before the pathogen was eradicated a...
<p>Effect of varying the rate of loss (<i>α</i>) in a) generations and b) years, varying the rate of...
<p>a) in black <i>1/α<sub>IC</sub></i> = 1 year, in grey <i>1/α<sub>IC</sub></i> = 1 month: solid li...
<p>A: cumulative incidence (total number of symptomatic cases) over a 28-year simulation as a functi...
<p>Each bar in the chart represents an average across 30 simulation runs for a given parameter setti...
<p>We show the medians of , evaluated using stochastic runs for the baseline (SIR model without fea...
Estimates under constant environmental conditions fall on the vertical dashed line, representing end...
<p>For each parameterization, a 10 year excerpt from a typical simulation is shown. Graphs on the le...
<p>(<b><i>A</i></b>) Increasing host population structure results in a significant reduction in epid...
<p>(<b><i>A</i></b>) The epidemiological effects of temporary cross-immunity, , on mean prevalence l...
For infections that become endemic in a population, the process may appear stable over a long time s...
Measles epidemics in human populations exhibit what is perhaps the best empirically characterized, a...
For infections that become endemic in a population, the process may appear stable over a long time s...
Abstract. A model for the spread of an infectious disease in a population with constant recruit-ment...
Ever since the pattern of localized extinction associated with measles was discovered by Bartlett in...
<p>(a) Successful control, with fewer than 10% of hosts removed before the pathogen was eradicated a...
<p>Effect of varying the rate of loss (<i>α</i>) in a) generations and b) years, varying the rate of...
<p>a) in black <i>1/α<sub>IC</sub></i> = 1 year, in grey <i>1/α<sub>IC</sub></i> = 1 month: solid li...
<p>A: cumulative incidence (total number of symptomatic cases) over a 28-year simulation as a functi...
<p>Each bar in the chart represents an average across 30 simulation runs for a given parameter setti...
<p>We show the medians of , evaluated using stochastic runs for the baseline (SIR model without fea...
Estimates under constant environmental conditions fall on the vertical dashed line, representing end...