<p>Since the local CDC investigated and implemented the actual combined strategies at day 8 in this outbreak, SEIARW model with no intervention was employed for curve fitting during 0∼8 days (pink line), and SEIARW model with combined strategies of S1wIAPW was employed for curve fitting for the days thereafter (green line). Prevalence = <i>I</i>/<i>N</i> = <i>i</i>, where <i>I</i> is the infectious and <i>N</i> is the total number of persons.</p
<p>Overall fit was calculated under dynamic (blue) and static (red) forecasts assuming a specific in...
<div><p>Background</p><p>Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten huma...
<p>Forecasts were based on best-fit baseline model in which only the level of vaccination coverage w...
<p>Observed data are presented as the number (black solid lines) and % positive (dashed black line) ...
<p>Given population density, 60 simulation replicates were run for each vaccination diffusion rate <...
<p>The number of observed and likely daily influenza cases (based on a pilgrims reported symptom ons...
(A) The best-fit parameters achieved an excellent fit to the observed cases, with a mean absolute er...
<p>The curve was built using only the cases having clinical signs, for which it is possible to estim...
<p>The red curve represents the maximum number of humans in the infected class (<i>I</i><sub><i>H</i...
a) The simulation is executed without any control measure, and the number of infected individuals is...
a<p>Cities with two-phase outbreaks: Expected final size, percent asymptomatic or unrecognized cases...
a) The number of currently infected individuals is plotted versus time for different values of the i...
(A) Proportion of infected travellers detected relative to infection time, in a scenario with incide...
<p>Sixty parameterizations of strain-transcending immunity (strength and duration) were simulated. W...
<p>Forecasts were based on best-fit baseline model in which only the level of vaccination coverage w...
<p>Overall fit was calculated under dynamic (blue) and static (red) forecasts assuming a specific in...
<div><p>Background</p><p>Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten huma...
<p>Forecasts were based on best-fit baseline model in which only the level of vaccination coverage w...
<p>Observed data are presented as the number (black solid lines) and % positive (dashed black line) ...
<p>Given population density, 60 simulation replicates were run for each vaccination diffusion rate <...
<p>The number of observed and likely daily influenza cases (based on a pilgrims reported symptom ons...
(A) The best-fit parameters achieved an excellent fit to the observed cases, with a mean absolute er...
<p>The curve was built using only the cases having clinical signs, for which it is possible to estim...
<p>The red curve represents the maximum number of humans in the infected class (<i>I</i><sub><i>H</i...
a) The simulation is executed without any control measure, and the number of infected individuals is...
a<p>Cities with two-phase outbreaks: Expected final size, percent asymptomatic or unrecognized cases...
a) The number of currently infected individuals is plotted versus time for different values of the i...
(A) Proportion of infected travellers detected relative to infection time, in a scenario with incide...
<p>Sixty parameterizations of strain-transcending immunity (strength and duration) were simulated. W...
<p>Forecasts were based on best-fit baseline model in which only the level of vaccination coverage w...
<p>Overall fit was calculated under dynamic (blue) and static (red) forecasts assuming a specific in...
<div><p>Background</p><p>Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten huma...
<p>Forecasts were based on best-fit baseline model in which only the level of vaccination coverage w...