Forecasts of several past influenza seasons and the observed data on past epidemics (black bars, number of laboratory positive samples), assuming a general infectiousness profile function and scalar for pre-existing immunity of 0.50.

<p>Forecasts were based on best-fit baseline model in which only the level of vaccination coverage was changed for each season. Scaling of the simulated epidemics was done under static (based on scalar for 1998–1999 season, red lines) or dynamic (based on having observed entire epidemic for respective season, blue lines). Green lines indicated %positive laboratory samples. X-axis is the number of weeks since start of season.