<p>(<i>A</i>) Example of estimated values for 2012 (solid, red) together with the weekly minimum temperatures for 2012 (solid, blue) and long-term average of minimum temperatures (2001–2011, dashed green). The dashed red line marks the epidemic threshold . (<i>B</i>) Example of estimated number of mosquitoes per human (solid, black), incubation period (solid, cyan) and adult life-span (solid, orange) for 2012.</p
<p>The initial conditions are set to <i>I</i><sub><i>v</i>1</sub>(0) = <i>I</i><sub><i>v</i>2</sub>(...
The current Zika virus epidemic in the Western hemisphere is representative of the confluence of glo...
Posterior mean estimates, lower (2.5%) and upper (97.5%) credible intervals (CI) for land-use types ...
<p>Blue represents the baseline model and red represents the temperature-forced model. The dotted li...
<p>The dashed line represents a climate with a mean annual temperature of 17°C and an average yearly...
<p>The initial conditions are set to <i>I</i><sub><i>h</i></sub>(0) = 0, <i>I</i><sub><i>v</i></sub>...
<p>(A) average mosquito life span, (B) mean extrinsic incubation period (cut off at 60 days), (C) me...
<p>The abundance of mosquitoes old enough to be potentially infectious across temperatures. In both ...
<p>A forecast was deemed accurate if: 1) peak timing was within ±1 week of the observed peak of infe...
<p>The initial conditions are set to <i>I</i><sub><i>h</i></sub>(0) = 0, <i>I</i><sub><i>v</i></sub>...
Data (points) from [38–40]. All models used a cubic polynomial of temperature as the explanatory var...
These bands represent median values across the set of calibrated parameter values, and the colored b...
<p>A forecast was deemed accurate if: 1) peak timing was within ±1 week of the observed peak of infe...
<p>Effectiveness sensitivity plots have the reference scenario highlighted in yellow. (a) Observed a...
<p>Model predictions of adult mosquito populations (blue lines) based on the best-fit to <i>Culex pi...
<p>The initial conditions are set to <i>I</i><sub><i>v</i>1</sub>(0) = <i>I</i><sub><i>v</i>2</sub>(...
The current Zika virus epidemic in the Western hemisphere is representative of the confluence of glo...
Posterior mean estimates, lower (2.5%) and upper (97.5%) credible intervals (CI) for land-use types ...
<p>Blue represents the baseline model and red represents the temperature-forced model. The dotted li...
<p>The dashed line represents a climate with a mean annual temperature of 17°C and an average yearly...
<p>The initial conditions are set to <i>I</i><sub><i>h</i></sub>(0) = 0, <i>I</i><sub><i>v</i></sub>...
<p>(A) average mosquito life span, (B) mean extrinsic incubation period (cut off at 60 days), (C) me...
<p>The abundance of mosquitoes old enough to be potentially infectious across temperatures. In both ...
<p>A forecast was deemed accurate if: 1) peak timing was within ±1 week of the observed peak of infe...
<p>The initial conditions are set to <i>I</i><sub><i>h</i></sub>(0) = 0, <i>I</i><sub><i>v</i></sub>...
Data (points) from [38–40]. All models used a cubic polynomial of temperature as the explanatory var...
These bands represent median values across the set of calibrated parameter values, and the colored b...
<p>A forecast was deemed accurate if: 1) peak timing was within ±1 week of the observed peak of infe...
<p>Effectiveness sensitivity plots have the reference scenario highlighted in yellow. (a) Observed a...
<p>Model predictions of adult mosquito populations (blue lines) based on the best-fit to <i>Culex pi...
<p>The initial conditions are set to <i>I</i><sub><i>v</i>1</sub>(0) = <i>I</i><sub><i>v</i>2</sub>(...
The current Zika virus epidemic in the Western hemisphere is representative of the confluence of glo...
Posterior mean estimates, lower (2.5%) and upper (97.5%) credible intervals (CI) for land-use types ...