The fraction of forecasts accurate for both the temperature-forced model (red) and baseline model (blue) as a function of lead week for the metrics human WNV cases, peak timing (week of peak mosquito infection rates), peak infection rate, and total infectious mosquitoes.

<p>A forecast was deemed accurate if: 1) peak timing was within ±1 week of the observed peak of infectious mosquitoes; 2) peak infection rate was within ±25% of the observed peak infection rate; 3) total infectious mosquitoes were within ±25% of the observed; and 4) human WNV cases were within ±25% or ±1 case of the total number of reported cases, whichever was larger. Note that for all metrics lead week is shown with respect to the week of peak mosquito infection. The size of the dot at each lead week represents the number of forecast generated for that lead week; larger dots indicate more forecasts were generated with a particular predicted lead.