Relative proportion of applications in three outcome categories, in five overall competition scenarios (5 reviewers per application).

<p>For 100 applications within five overall competition success scenarios [5% (a), 15% (b), 25% (c), 35% (d), and 50% (e)], different proportions of applications had very high (A), medium (B) or very low (C) probability of success (categories defined in text) over 10,000 iterations of simulated competition results. Horizontal green lines indicated a probability of success of 5% and 95%. Vertical blue lines indicated where locally weighted polynomial regression (LOESS smoothing) curves intersected the 5% or 95% probability of success, or reached the highest ranked application (the limit of the graph).