Step-by-step evaluation of photovoltaic module performance related to outdoor parameters: evaluation of the uncertainty

International audienceKnowing the uncertainty in the PV productionforecast is crucial in the optimization of smart-grid operationsand in its stability. In this paper, we present uncertaintycalculation in the PV energy production forecast process,calculated step by step. From horizontal irradiance and ambienttemperature, all the steps needed to evaluate the PV productionare studied with a special focus on the comparison betweencalculation and measurements. The uncertainty is evaluated bycomputing the relative mean bias error and the relative meanabsolute error