AD-A256 177IMIll l I 111 II ll U ExperCAT Case

ExperCAT, an expert system that provides analysis and short-term forecasts (less than 6 hours) of clear air turbulence (CAT), is evaluated through an intercomparison with U.S. Air Force (USAF) turbulence charts. Seven case studies are present-ed. Using a meteorologist who was not involved in the develop-ment of ExperCAT as the end user for the test, five of the cases produced results that were in agreement with the USAF charts. A variety of possible reasons can explain the lack of agreement in the other two cases. These possibilities include the general type of coverage on the USAF charts as compared to the more detailed analysis of ExperCAT, an insufficient number of high quality satellite images, or an inadequate rule base in ExperCAT. Suggestions are made for system enhancements that would help the uninitiated user and expand the explanation facility of ExperCAT