Impacts of Electric-drive Vehicles on California’s Energy System

Although the transportation and electricity sectors are largely independent today, a shift away from the current convention could lead to increased integration of the two sectors. If alternatives such as battery-electric vehicles, hydrogen, or plug-in hybrids penetrate the market significantly, they would add additional demands to the electricity system with unique load profiles. Estimating the economic, environmental, and resource impacts of these new fuel pathways requires understanding the broader energy systems-context within which their respective supply pathways exist. Specifically, there are important interactions with the dynamic electricity grid. We develop a set of energy demand scenarios for the State of California through 2050, and characterize the electricity sector using a dispatch model to simulate the operation of the grid on an hourly basis. We consider the impact on hourly electricity demand of several electric-drive vehicles and hydrogen pathways – including production from electrolysis and other methods, and compression, liquefaction and refueling station demands. We also investigate impacts associated with varying the time-of-day of these demands. The outputs quantify greenhouse gas emissions and resource use associated with the scenarios, providing useful insight regarding a transition towards electric-drive vehicles in near-term and emerging markets