Potential Energy Load Requirements of an Electrified Transportation Sector in Los Angeles: Impacts on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

<p>Using plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has become an important component of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategy in the transportation sector. A substantial increase in the use of PEVs results in a significant decrease in the amount of GHG emissions versus conventional gasoline vehicles on a “wells-to-wheels” basis. This study examines the potential impacts on energy load and GHG emissions of a large-scale adoption of PEVs in the City of Los Angeles (LA). A large-scale adoption of PEVs and their resultant emission reduction potentials are dependent on factors such as type and scale of electricity generation sources, electric battery technologies, and consumer behavior in terms of adoption and charging patterns. By integrating these factors, this study creates a comprehensive model that estimates the energy load and GHG emission impacts from PEVs for the years 2020 and 2030. Model simulations for 2020 show that the PEV charging loads will be modest with negligible effects on the overall generation profile. Contrary to popular belief, we found that the average marginal carbon intensity is significantly higher during off-peak hours. Model simulations for 2030 show that the PEV charging loads will become more significant with potential generation shortages for peak demand periods. For 2030, the average marginal carbon intensity for all hours decreases significantly mainly due to the removal of coal from the power generation sources by 2025. In this scenario, off-peak charging becomes preferable versus peak charging. These results suggest that the current economic incentives to encourage off-peak charging may actually result in greater GHG emissions. A greater understanding of a region’s specific electricity generation and dispatching of resources are imperative to creating the best strategies for PEV adoption and charging behavior that would maximize emissions mitigation.