Natural Hazards, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0159-8

Abstract: Tide gauge and satellite data indicate that the rate of sea level rise has not increased significantly in response to the last 3/4 century of CO2 emissions, so there is no reason to expect that it will do so in response to the next 3/4 century of CO2 emissions. The best prediction for sea level in the future is simply a linear projection of the history of sea level at the same location in the past. For Long Island, that is about 7-8 inches by 2080. At its western tip, Long Island meets Manhattan Island, at a place called The Battery. There is an excellent GLOSS-LTT tide gauge there which has been measuring sea levels since 1856. Due to local land subsidence, sea level is rising faster at The Battery than at 85 % of the other GLOSS-LTT tide gauges in the world, but the rate of rise has been nearly constant for over a century, at 2.77 +/-0.09 mm/year (95 % confidence interval). About 32 Km away, at Kings Point, on the north shore of Long Island, there's another good GLOSS-LTT tide gauge, which has been measuring sea level since 1931. Sea level there has been rising at only 2.35 +/- 0.24 mm/year