Physiographic response to a predicted rise in sea level around Port Phillip Bay

The question of future sea level rise has recently become a significant issue in the global community. Scientists are concerned that increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, due to fossil fuel combustion, major forest clearing, industrial and agricultural activities, will cause a global warming trend known as the "greenhouse effect". Such a change is expected to create many environmental problems. One major concern is a rise in global sea level. Based on historical evidence from tide gauge records, global sea level has been rising at about 10-15cm per century (Gutenberg, 1941; Gornitz et al., 1982). Increases in sea level, associated with increasing temperature, are occurring as a result of thermal expansion of the upper layers of the ocean (Etkins and Epstein, 1982) and partial melting of glaciers (Meier, 1984). This trend is expected to continue and accelerate if increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases cause further global warming. Hoffman (1984) has predicted that sea level will rise between 56.2cm and 345cm by the year 2100 (Figure 1.1). This project is concerned with the potential geomorphological and ecological consequences of a predicted rise in sea level of at least one metre over the next century (Thomas, 1986). Port Phillip Bay provides a good location to study the effects of a sea level rise as it possesses a wide variety of natural geomorphological features and man-made structures