Paper ICMPA104 8th International Conference on Managing Pavement Assets USING TRAFFIC FORECASTING MODEL IN ASSET MANAGEMENT

A Traffic Asset Management system consists of several subsystems. One of the most important ones is the Road Management System, and its subsystem, the Pavement Management System (PMS). Another important subsystem is the Future Road Network Planning System. In the paper, these two subsystems are combined together to present the real traffic situation. A PMS usually does not take into consideration future traffic changes. The maintenance, rehabilitation and development of the road network and the changes in the traffic structure affect the traffic size on the road sections. The deterioration process mostly depends on the volume of heavy traffic. That is why it is important to take into consideration the changes in traffic volume during the whole planning period. In the conference paper, techniques are shown for handling this problem: in a multi-period model. The change in traffic volume is taken into consideration in each planning period. The problem can be handled and solved in ranking models. In a one-period Markov stable model, there is nothing to do. In the multi-period model, this problem can be solved. In this case, a stepwise optimization procedure is used instead of the original algorithm. The objective function is also modified to the minimum of the sum of the differences between the actual solution and the Markov stable model one is minimized. The use of this algorithm results in a better quality of the road network by allocating the available highway funds more efficiently. The benefit of the proposed methodology is illustrated by two practical examples