Identifying Signs and Signals of Desistance Within Pre-Release Offender Data for Predicting Post-Incarceration Offending

Every Australian jurisdiction states a key function of corrections is to facilitate rehabilitation, reintegration, and to break the cycle of offending. Yet conceptually contradictory to this statement, correctional governance relies on risk-based policies to inform and guide practitioner decision-making regarding offender management. It was argued in this thesis that risk assessments were not ideal as the primarily dominant model within correctional settings as they are designed to predict the individual's potential for recidivism. Rather, equal consideration should be given to assessing an individuals readiness for progression towards criminal cessation - desistance. As such, the key aim and contribution of this study was to demonstrate the value of analysing signs (behavioural patterns indicating a change in offending) and signals (self-reported social or symbolic capital signifying one's pro-social commitment) of desistance within pre-release offender data as a potential supplementary approach to predicting, and subsequently facilitating, post-incarceration desistance outcomes. Data was analysed from the Drug Use Careers of Offenders (DUCO) survey (Makkai & Payne, 2003a, 2003b) and linked longitudinal criminal histories collected from the Queensland State Government (Payne, 2014). The sample comprised of 345 male Queensland prisoners who participated in the DUCO survey in 2000 and were classified as the highest risk rating by the 'Risk of Reoffending-Prison Version' screening tool (Thompson & Stewart, 2007). The first analysis examined the extent and nature of heterogeneity for an otherwise homogenously classified 'high-risk' category of prisoners. A second analysis tested whether desistance trajectories could be identified in longitudinal offending patterns using group-based trajectory modelling. A subsequent component of this enquiry tested the degree to which pre-incarceration longitudinal offending patterns could predict post-incarceration offending. The final research enquiry analysed the extent to which the self-reported possession of desistance signals could predict post-incarceration offending. A subsequent component of this enquiry tested whether these signals held varying explanatory power for different pre-incarceration longitudinal offending pathways - whether signals were path dependent. The findings indicated that variance was present within this high-risk sample to a greater extent than was captured via the risk screening tool. It was hypothesised that a more detailed understanding and capturing of offender heterogeneity could improve offender assessments and management in the future. Analysis also showed that identifying desistance pathways in pre-prison longitudinal offending data was informative for predicting desistance outcomes after release; however, further development of the analytical modelling is required in this space to identify those offenders at the 'turning point' of their desistance pathway. Signalling variables were less explanatory of post-incarceration offending. However, voluntary enrolment into drug treatment was identified as a meaningful, path dependent, signal of desistance for men exhibiting a sharp escalation in offending before incarceration. Path dependent signals could be valuable for the targeting of interventions, although richer qualitative analyses would first be required for refining these variables. Overall, harnessing the power of identifying desistance for offender assessment and management practices has the potential to realign correctional purpose with practice, improve criminal offending predictions, and provide greater insights into avenues for correctional support to break the cycle of offending more effectively