Computer simulation of payments volatility for longterm loans in PLN and CHF drawn in 2004-2008

This paper presents the results of using proprietary simulation software for the analysis of the financial risk associated with long-term taking loans in domestic and foreign currency. The study was conducted for loans in PLN and CHF incurred in different periods characterized by a different situation on the financial markets (significantly different currency exchange rates or interest rates, another entry in the „economic cycle”). The theoretical part of the paper describes basic concepts in long-term loans, and also shows the major assumptions for analyzing financial risks arising from incurring long-term obligations in domestic or foreign currency. In the practical part the assumptions of simulation of volatility of future fixed repayment level for loans taken out in PLN or CHF between 2004 and 2008 were described. The results of simulation along with the calculation of the total amount paid in future periods for analyzed variants of credit were also presented