Using Simulation Modeling for Finding the Limits of Economic Development Lending without a Financial Crisis

The only existing approach to analyze the impact of excessive credit on the economy is based on statistics. Its main drawback is small intervals of changes in countries’ indicators, limited by current values. So researchers cannot notice how too much credit causes a financial crisis. To eliminate this and other shortcomings of the statistical approach, the author proposes a different approach: to use for such an analysis an economic model in which one can change credit levels. The most adequate model is a causal simulation model that reflects the main types of legal and shadow economic activity in their relationship. The author has developed such a model. This model showed that the level of loans 25% of output (51.8% of GDP), could create Ukraine’s financial crisis. Since loans are mainly used for investment, the author introduced the concept of the technical productivity of investment to link them with the technical progress, and with GDP growth. The technical productivity of investment measures their ability to reduce the rate of material or labor costs. Besides, the introduction of an indicator of technical productivity of investment made it possible to obtain an analytical dependence of the rate of economic growth on the level of loans and technical productivity of investment