Differences of credit rationing between public and private banks with housing policy tightening - application of Difference in Difference method

金融海嘯發生後，全球經濟在衍生性商品包裝下應聲受挫，反映過去主要國家中央銀行過度強調物價穩定，放任金融創新，對房貸疏於管制；因此當房價崩跌時，銀行的資產品質急遽惡化，銀行業因而嚴重受創，導致金融體系無法正常運作，衝擊實體經濟；失業率攀高，民眾付不出房貸、房屋被法拍，最後陷入金融與經濟不穩定相互影響的惡性循環。 影響房地產的因素眾多，可歸納為：（一）經濟因素，如所得、利率等；（二）社會文化因素，如人口成長率；（三）住宅條件，如交通的便捷性；（四）政治因素政局是否穩定，將影響社會大眾購置不動產的意願；（五）房屋本身特質，如坪數、建材、樓層等；及（六）政府政策因素，如貨幣政策、都市計畫管制，選擇性信用管制等。 由於經濟快速成長與國民所得激增，國內游資充裕物價高漲，帶動台灣房地於民國62至63年、68至69年、76至78年三次景氣循環達到高峰。也因此，民國78年2月28日，央行宣布實施選擇性信用管制，強制金融機構限定土地貸款成數、期限，首開房地產市場受金融管制之先例。 時至98年第2季金融風暴後，由於各國寬鬆貨幣政策陸續發酵，我國遺贈稅率調降至10%，及簽署金融監理合作備忘錄（MOU）、海峽兩岸經濟架構協議（ECFA）等兩岸經貿利多，吸引外資回流，陸資來台投資意願，再加上股市大漲創造的財富效果，推動資金行情加溫，帶動房市價量俱增。 民國99年，全球景氣持續復甦，我國出口及廠商大幅擴張，及全球需求增溫，推升原油等國際原物料行情，房價持續飆漲。央行遂於民國99年6月24日除調升重 貼現率、擔保放款融通利率及短期融通利率，並訂定「中央對金融機構辦理特定地區購屋貸款業務規定」，自6月25日實施，適用地區為新增放款過度集中在台北市及新北市10個縣轄市。 本研究針對本次特定地區信用管制措施，財政部一連串「打炒房」政策效果逐漸彰顯之際，擬藉由央行、金管會銀行局統計報表，分析銀行授信策略如放款科目、對象別及其他授信結構的差異、專家學者論述所集結論證研究，進行Difference in Difference方法的應用，探討房貸緊縮下公、民營銀行授信差異，提出適切論證以提供政府政策執行參考。The financial tsunami caused by US subprime mortgage crisis devastated the global economy and revealed the overemphasis of major central banks on price stability, overrated financial innovation, and the willful regulation of the mortgage. Hence, the quality of banks’ assets deteriorated rapidly and resulted in the breakdown of the financial system, leaving a long-lasting impact on the real economy. With unemployment rising, house owners lost their ability to sustain the over-priced mortgage. The end results are way too many foreclosed houses initiated a vicious cycle of financial and economic instability. Real estate markets are often affected by many factors which we summarize as follows: (1) Economic factors, such as income, interest rates, etc; (2) Social and cultural factors, such as population growth rate; (3) Housing conditions, such as the convenience of transportation; (4) The political factors, whether the political situation is stable would affect the willingness of communities in purchasing real property; (5) The characteristics of the properties, such as floor numbers, building materials and so on; and (6) The policies of government, such as monetary policy, urban planning control, discretional credit control, and etc. The thesis aims to study Taiwan’s real estate market with the above mentioned factors, in particular with focus on the effects of credit controls. The central bank declared the first credit control policy on February 28th, 1989 to regulate financial institutions in the forms of capped land loans and strict due dates. Until the second quarter of financial crisis in 2009 and owing to the quantity easing of many countries worldwide, Taiwan’s central bank again resorted to the tightening credit control policy tools in setting "central to financial institutions to handle specific areas housing loan business requirement" effective from June 25, 2010. Areas included Taipei City, New Taipei City, and other 10 cities in Taiwan were deemed as the housing bubble zones. This study uses data from the Statistical Reports of the central bank and FSC Banking Bureau to analyze the banks’ counter-credit-policy responses, such as lending subjects, objects, and other differences in credit structure. Difference-in-Difference approach is used to explore the differences of credit rationing between state-owned (or state-controlled) banks and private banks. Policy recommendation is provided in Chapter V in reminding the regulators to pay special attention to the non-universal effect of a universal credit control measure