Changes in the relationship between first childbirth and homeownership: new evidence from Spain, 2000-2008

When ageing became a demographic challenge in the 21st century, a consensus emerged that reversing the trend of fertility levels would benefit from fertility-oriented policies. Meanwhile, in southern Europe where the housing market is concentrated on homeownership, the housing sphere has been contributing modestly to this debate. This study analyses the relationship between homeownership and fertility in Spain during the period 2000-2008. Using the microdata of the 2008 Spanish Survey of Household Finances, we estimate a multivariate probit model to measure the effect of homeownership on the likelihood of having the first childbirth and to examine whether this relationship has changed over time. The results provide evidence that living in homeownership in the southern European housing system at the beginning of the 21st century increases the likelihood of having a first child, and in addition, social and economic developments are shaping this relationship. The key message of this study is that direct encouragement of childbearing will not suffice in promoting a change in the southern European fertility trends. The inclusion of housing policies could bring a shift at the upstream of the fertility question.