The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are shown to be able, under specified conditions, to quicken the revisions of forecasts and to hedge or diversify financial risks after partially unforeseen events have occurred. General correcting formulae for forecasts are proposed
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that ...
In this paper we review methods that aim to aid the anticipation of rare, high-impact, events. We ev...
This paper examines the behavior of 4 major forecasters and the forecast consensus. We employ a new ...
The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The a...
A general correcting formula of forecasting (as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts)...
We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in...
We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in...
The paper claims forecasting is a process during which forecasts are regularly updates and revised. ...
The paper considers the sources of forecast errors and their consequences in an evolving economy sub...
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that s...
These lecture notes codify extensive recent research on economic forecasting. When a forecast-ing mo...
Economic forecasting aims at outlining possible futures and thus forming actors’ expectations. It de...
This special section aims to demonstrate the limited predictability and high level of uncertainty in...
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that ...
In this paper we review methods that aim to aid the anticipation of rare, high-impact, events. We ev...
This paper examines the behavior of 4 major forecasters and the forecast consensus. We employ a new ...
The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The a...
A general correcting formula of forecasting (as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts)...
We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in...
We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in...
The paper claims forecasting is a process during which forecasts are regularly updates and revised. ...
The paper considers the sources of forecast errors and their consequences in an evolving economy sub...
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that s...
These lecture notes codify extensive recent research on economic forecasting. When a forecast-ing mo...
Economic forecasting aims at outlining possible futures and thus forming actors’ expectations. It de...
This special section aims to demonstrate the limited predictability and high level of uncertainty in...
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that ...
In this paper we review methods that aim to aid the anticipation of rare, high-impact, events. We ev...
This paper examines the behavior of 4 major forecasters and the forecast consensus. We employ a new ...