Egg production forecasting: Determining

Accurate modeling of commercial layer strains during various phases of the egg produc-tion cycle, via an easy-to-use procedure, may lead to a better understanding of egg production behavior under new and changing conditions. Such models, in turn, will lead to efficient feed and nutrient intake balances, an improved envi-ronment, and enhanced farm profits. modeling commercial egg production, how-ever, is a complex and challenging task, mainly because of the nonlinear nature of the egg pro-duction curves. Commercial layer flocks typi-cally begin hen-day production (HD) around wk 20, starting slowly around 5 % (i.e., 5 % of the flock is laying an egg once a day) and with pro-duction increasing exponentially for the next 3 to 4 wk until peak production of 95 to 97 % HD is achieved around wk 28. This is referred to a