Malthus to Modernity: Income, Fertility and Economic Growth

The Industrial Revolution seemingly involved two profound changes separated by 120 years: the classic Industrial Revolution of 1770, and the demographic transition of 1890. The first was the appearance of higher innovation rates, creating modern rates of output growth. The second a decline in fertility, first in the upper classes, then among the masses, that channeled all econom-ic growth into higher living standards. That 120 year chasm has been unbridgeable in unified accounts of the transition to modern growth. Measuring economic status and net fertility from wills we show that the demographic transition actually coincided with the Industrial Revolution. Net fertility among the rich fell rapidly towards modern levels after 1770. But aggregate fertility rose in these years because net fertility among the poor at the same time rose to equal that of the rich. Only in the 1890s did aggregate fertility rates begin to decline.