Predicting the 2006 Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives

Utilizing information on House elections from 1974-2004, predictions for the outcome of the 2006 House elections are made. A novel approach to predicting Congressional elections is utilized, using candidate, district, and national level variables in a pooled design. The probability that the Democratic candidate will win is computed for each 2006 House race, and the 30 most competitive races are identified. National partisan tides favor the Democrats this year, in the form of pro-Democratic vote intentions, low presidential approval, and moderately low growth in real disposable income. These factors result in an estimated 94.9 percent chance that the Democrats will take control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and are predicted to have 224 seats after the election, a 22 seat gain. This prediction of substantial Democratic gains run counter to many claims made in the popular press in late April.