Consensus Scoring Criteria for Improving Enrichment in Virtual Screening

Motivation: Virtual screening of molecular compound libraries is a potentially powerful and inexpensive method for the discovery of novel lead compounds for drug development. The major weakness of virtual screeningsthe inability to consistently identify true positives (leads)sis likely due to our incomplete understanding of the chemistry involved in ligand binding and the subsequently imprecise scoring algorithms. It has been demonstrated that combining multiple scoring functions (consensus scoring) improves the enrichment of true positives. Previous efforts at consensus scoring have largely focused on empirical results, but they have yet to provide a theoretical analysis that gives insight into real features of combinations and data fusion for virtual screening. Results: We demonstrate that combining multiple scoring functions improves the enrichment of true positives only if (a) each of the individual scoring functions has relatively high performance and (b) the individual scoring functions are distinctive. Notably, these two prediction variables are previously established criteria for the performance of data fusion approaches using either rank or score combinations. This work, thus, establishes a potential theoretical basis for the probable success of data fusion approaches to improve yields in in silico screening experiments. Furthermore, it is similarly established that the second criterion (b) can, in at least some cases, be functionally defined as the area between the rank versus score plots generated by the two (or more) algorithms. Because rank-score plots are independent o