Land use change as a determinant of the European agricultural vulnerability confronted with pollinator decline

Insect pollination is essential for the production of a large array of crops. In the last decade, there has been evidence of a worldwide pollinator decline. A major pressures for this decline seem to be land use change and agricultural intensification. Yet the policy response is not as fast as it should be. One can explain this reluctance by the low visibility of this impact into the agricultural sector in the near future. This paper analyzes the evolution in next years of the European agricultural vulnerability confronted with pollinator decline through the evolution of land use change. The vulnerability of agriculture to insect pollination loss is a combination of three indicators: 1) the economic value of insect pollination, 2) the vulnerability ratio, and 3) the social welfare loss. The evolution of these indicators until 2080 have been estimated in three scenarios: Growth Applied Strategy (GRAS), Business As Might Be Usual (BAMBU) and Sustainable European Development Goal (SEDG). The overall result is that the European agricultural vulnerability will increase in the near future in all scenarios and thus we demonstrate that policy is needed to protect pollinators