Early clinical predictors and correlates of long-term morbidity in bipolar disorder

OBJECTIVES: Identifying factors predictive of long-term morbidity should improve clinical planning limiting disability and mortality associated with bipolar disorder (BD). METHODS: We analyzed factors associated with total, depressive and mania-related long-term morbidity and their ratio D/M, as %-time ill between a first-lifetime major affective episode and last follow-up of 207 BD subjects. Bivariate comparisons were followed by multivariable linear regression modeling. RESULTS: Total % of months ill during follow-up was greater in 96 BD-II (40.2%) than 111 BD-I subjects (28.4%; P=0.001). Time in depression averaged 26.1% in BD-II and 14.3% in BD-I, whereas mania-related morbidity was similar in both, averaging 13.9%. Their ratio D/M was 3.7-fold greater in BD-II than BD-I (5.74 vs. 1.96; P