Development of improved models for the accurate pre-diction of energy consumption in dwellings

This report presents the results of the second part of the Monicair project1, which aim was to explore in how far the better determination of a number of parameters, which up to now were measured on-ly seldom, could support the development of better prediction models for the heating energy con-sumption in dwellings. Energy labelling calculations, as well as energy consumption forecasts, on which energy policies rely, are based on models. In the past years several studies have demonstrated that these models show large deviations from reality, making the prediction of possible energy sav-ings biased. These poor predictions can be hypothesised to be the result of poor estimation of the U–values of walls, poor estimation of the infiltration and ventilation flow rates and poor estimation of the heated surface area and of the temperature preferences of occupants. Additionally, there is very little knowledge on how occupant’s perception of comfort influences their ventilation and heating behaviour and finally the total energy use for heating.This report presents the results of a field study in which monitoring data was collected in order to further analyse parameters that could influence strongly the heating energy consumption and to fi-nally improve energy prediction models. A mix of modern and older dwellings was studied, as this can give a better idea of possible energy savings when renovating dwellings.