Scoreboard Indicators as a Measure of Macroeconomic Imbalances

This thesis examined an ability of the scoreboard indicators created by the European Commission to capture macroeconomic imbalances expressed as the changes of GDP. We conducted an empirical analysis for panel data of 27 EU countries in the 1997-2011 period. We adopted three different dynamic panel data models based on the three estimators: the Arrelano- Bond, the Arrelano-Bover and the corrected LSDV estimator. Our results suggest that despite some bad characteristics of our dataset we can conclude that some of the indicators such as 3- year average of current account balance or percentage change in export market shares seem to be inadequate for measuring the imbalances. Moreover, the indicators were proved not to be able to predict an occurrence of imbalances