Cohort mortality pattern and its modelling

The aim of the thesis is to introduce a simple alternative approach of mortality modeling (future estimates of mortality rates) which is based on cohort mortality patterns. The assumption of constant change of the force of mortality between two following ages across cohorts is the fundamental base of the proposed model. Theoretical aspects of the model are discussed and its assumptions are verified on time series of Swedish data which are long enough for this purpose. Results of the model application are compared with empirical results of already extinct cohorts and some estimates for still living cohorts are made too. Applications on real data showed good results which respected changes in the mortality development. In the last part of the thesis some possible modification are discussed which could cause results less variable. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org