Forecast of the size and structure of the prison population in the CR

Forecast of the size and structure of the prison population in the CR Abstract: Forecasting of prison population in the Czech Republic is almost an unexplored topic. To the whole prison system as a topic is also devoted little space in the literature. The most advanced methods of forecasting of prison populations cannot be used to the Czech data, which are used in countries with a long tradition of it. The data are not connected between Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Interior, and also differ in their definitions. It is therefore necessary to use a simplified method, which correspond to the data sources. The process is also interfered with unexpected external factors such as the amnesty of the President of the Republic on the 1 January 2013. Models for convicted expected forecast decline in their number by the end of 2013 to 12 to 19 thousands. Models further assume that a decline in 2013 would take place, even if there were no amnesty. Models for the accused assume their fluctuation around the same values. Follow-up calculations show that the state would save significantly by the projection models variants and also the burden on prison officers in correctional facilities would be reduced to 2.1 to 3.2 prisoners per guard from the current 3.5 prisoners per guard. Keywords: prison projection,..