Evaluation of precipitation forecast from the point of view of hydrological forecasting in small catchments

In this work we have evaluated NWP ALADIN quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) for selected headwater areas of the Czech part of the Elbe river basin. Work describes geographical characteristics of 9 small study basins, and gives an overview of important synoptic situations and theory of NWP ALADIN. Different applied statistical methods (f.e. double mass curve, CDF, frequency diagram, discrimination and reliability) are introduced. Results have proved over-forecasting of days with precipitations especially those of light precipitation up to 1 mm and partly also up to 5 mm. On the other hand basins that are not exposed to prevailing western flows show under-forecasting of precipitation higher than 8 mm. Evaluation also proved the significant change in forecasting performance due to change in model resolution in 2005. The change was more significant in basins exposed to west and in basins in middle altitudes and spatially limited highlands. Simple quantile transformation resulted in improvement of forecast of total long term volume of precipitation in most of the study basins. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org