Soil Organic Carbon: current stock and future projections in Italy and Europe using a spatial modelling approach

Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents the largest carbon pool in the terrestrial biosphere. A significant impact of climate change on carbon accumulation and release processes from soils has been recognized from the scientific community. Several papers highlighted the role of woody areas in the global carbon budget. At the same time, a noticeable data shortage related to the carbon stored in these surfaces has been recognized. The main objectives of this work were: (i) to develop a methodology for performing large-scale SOC estimates; (ii) to assess the current SOC stock and future projections for forestry and tree crop soils in Italy and in a Euro-Mediterranean area. A spatial modeling platform was developed, using CENTURY 5 model. The model was then run at 500 m resolution for Italy and at 1 km resolution for the Euro-Mediterranean area. In Italy the total SOC stock ranges between 1320 Tg and 1425 Tg. The largest contribution was supplied by broad-leaved, followed by coniferous. In the Euro-Mediterranean area the total SOC stock ranges from 5917 Tg to 6317 Tg. The largest contribution was supplied by coniferous, followed by broad-leaved and mixed forests. The total SOC stock decreases both in Italy (-0.75%; 13 Tg) and Euro-Mediterranean area (-0.86%; 53 Tg) in the period 2005-2095. The results obtained would represent a contribution for improving our knowledge on the role of the forestry surfaces for the development of policies related to climate change mitigation strategies