Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk in a cohort of older Chinese adults in Hong Kong

Poster and abstract presentation: no. P36-0042Introduction: Risk prediction models for cardiovascular disease (CVD) derived from Western cohorts allow stratification of CVD risk based on an individual's risk factors and the population's CVD risk. Chinese have relatively low rates of ischaemic heart disease. The predictive performance of such tools in Chinese populations should be evaluated before application. Project Objectives: We compared the predictive performance of the widely used Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and Globorisk, a new risk prediction model, for adults aged ≥65 years in the Hong Kong Department of Health's Elderly Health Service (EHS) cohort. Methods: The cohort consisted of 66,820 adults aged ≥65 years enrolled from 1998 to 2001. We tracked CVD deaths prospectively through linkage with death registration until 2012, and assumed a ratio of 8:1 for nonfatal to fatal events. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the FRS and Globorisk among participants without CVD at baseline. Discrimination was measured using the C-Statistic, with 0.5 equating to chance and 1 indicating perfect discrimination. Calibration was measured by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, with Χ2