River response to recent environmental change in the Yorkshire Ouse basin, northern England

This study examines historical variations in flood frequency and magnitude in the Yorkshire Ouse basin, northern England, over the last 900 years. The causes of temporal and spatial variations in flooding are evaluated through investigation o f climatic and land-use controls. Documentary evidence o f flooding and climate suggests that a series of large floods between 1263 and 1360 were associated with climatic deterioration from the Medieval Optimum. A shift to generally milder conditions between 1361 and 1549 resulted in no floods being documented in the Ouse basin The frequency o f large magnitude floods increased dramatically between 1550 and 1680, as a result o f low temperatures, increased surface wetness, more frequent snowfall and a southward shift of prevailing storm tracks over middle latitudes, associated with the onset of the "Little Ice Age’. In contrast, during a wanner phase of the Little Ice Age, between 1681 and 1763, the frequency of localised summer flooding increased in the Ouse basin due to more frequent high intensity, short duration convective storms. Extensive lowland flooding became more common between 1764 and 1799 due to an increase in heavy rainfall, followed by a 50-year period characterised by relatively moderate flood frequencies and magnitudes. The later half of the nineteenth century experienced high flood frequencies and magnitudes, particularly in the 1870s and early-1880s, coinciding with high rainfall totals and a high incidence of cyclonic flood generation. Gauged flood and climate data, and land-use records indicate that the period between 1900 and 1916 was characterised by very low flood frequencies and magnitudes, associated with low rainfall, warm temperatures, and an increase in westerly flood generation. Between 1916 and 1943 there were marked variations in flood magnitude between the rural northern rivers and southern industrialised rivers. Magnitudes generally increased on northern rivers, whilst on some southern tributaries of the Ouse, flood magnitudes declined as a result of widespread channel improvement and flood defence schemes. Around 1944 a marked and sustained increase in flood frequency on northern rivers was associated with an increase in the incidence of heavy daily rainfall, greater westerly flood generation and large-scale upland and lowland drainage. Very low flood frequencies and magnitudes between 1969'and 1977 resulted from extremely low rainfall totals. Whereas the most recent period, between 1978 and 1996 has experienced some of the highest flood frequencies and magnitudes on record, associated with an increase in the frequency of floods generated under cyclonic and south-westerly synoptic situations, and a number of land-use changes promoting more rapid runoff including, large increases in upland livestock numbers, an increase in the area under winter-cereals and the cumulative effects of moorland gripping