Current concepts of adaptive capacity and its utility for decision making

Adaptive capacity has become widely acknowledged as a fundamental component of vulnerability to climate change as indicated by the rapid growth of academic publications on the topic. Interpretations of the concept of adaptive capacity vary in the published literature. Its utility for decision making and ultimately for effective adaptation to climate change, have not to this point been the focus of investigation. In order to improve the synergies between climate change adaptation researchers and decision makers, we undertook an assessment of the interpretation of and approach to adaptive capacity research and application among a range of disciplines and institutional settings. The project was undertaken as part of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF, Australia) Synthesis and Integrative Research Programme. Based on the results of a critical review of recent adaptive capacity publications, an online survey of 299 researchers and decision-makers in the field of climate change, and interviews with key informants, we argue that the concept of adaptive capacity continues to evolve through recognition of the importance of context and system linkages. Further, the approaches and methods used for published adaptive capacity research suggest a paradigm shift from determinism to complexity and from mono-disciplinarity to trans-disciplinarity, multiplicity and participation. Consistent with its evolving, complex nature, researchers in the field report a gap between the theoretical development of adaptive capacity and its practical application by institutions with responsibility for developing and implementing adaptation plans. The utility of adaptive capacity for decision making goes largely unquestioned in the published literature, with much recent focus on refining tools for its application. An exploration of the perceptions of climate change researchers and decision makers reveals that despite a large proportion of the climate change adaptation research community feeling pessimistic about the future generally, most consider applications of adaptive capacity to be somewhat effective. Decision makers in the same field express a slightly higher assessment of its utility. We conclude that the utility of adaptive capacity could be improved by concurrently addressing multiple issues including knowledge gaps, communication of transferable adaptation lessons, and institutional transformation through multi-scalar approaches