Bringing Agroforestry Technology to Farmers in the Philippines: Identifying Constraints to the Success of Extension Activities Using Systems Modelling

This paper presents a systems modelling approach to evaluating the success of an agroforestry extension program in Leyte, the Philippines. During the program, variables which are intrinsic to farmers' socio-economic and farming systems were found to have influenced the uptake and acceptance of extension advice. Evaluation of the program therefore depended on identifying the variables and their interdependencies and assessing their relative influence on program outputs. For this purpose, a systems approach which encourages breaking systems into component variables, but also acknowledges the context of problems, assisted construction of models. Using both empirical data collected during program activities and input from stakeholders, Bayesian Belief Network software was used to predict critical success factors for four aspects of the overall extension system, namely recruitment, use of written extension materials, farmers' self-efficacy and retention of participating farmers throughout the program. A key predicted constraint to program recruitment is farmers' perception of harvest security and while this variable can be partly addressed through dissemination of information on harvesting legislation, title security cannot. Differing levels of farmers' education result in differences in predicted reading ability, comprehension of extension literature and possible misconstrual of information. The variable most critical to the development of farmers' self-efficacy is extended on-farm technical assistance and support