'Rev Thomas Bayes: <I>Get ready to wiggle</I>' — Bayesian modelling, radiocarbon wiggle-matching, and the North wing of Baguley Hall

The principles of the Bayesian approach for modelling chronologies has been outlined in Bayliss (this volume). This paper applies these methods to a ‘real world’ problem of dating a phase of construction where the potential for treering dating is limited. The accuracy and precision that these new techniques can deliver is demonstrated. Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates and tree-ring dating independently estimate construction of the north wing in the third quarter of the fifteenth century