THE GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT AS A FRAMEWORK: THE FUTURE OF PEACE IN NORTHERN IRELAND

John Patrick Montaño, Ph.D.In 1998, the Good Friday Agreement effectively put an end to decades of violence in Northern Ireland, a period known as “the Troubles.” Despite the levels of violence between the two main groups in Northern Ireland—groups divided along lines of heritage, religion, and political views— and the tensions that still exist today, the Good Friday Agreement succeeded. The Agreement has been lauded in the decades since for this accomplishment; however, it may not be the solution that it is often characterized as by its supporters. Rather, it is a framework for a solution, insofar as it requires other agreements, institutions, and legislation. Lawmakers recognized this immediately, and consequently set about crafting the legislation that the Agreement suggested. Unfortunately, as violence waned and major tenets of the Agreement were satisfied, effort to supplement the Agreement dropped off. This thesis first examines the Agreement to determine what makes it a framework rather than a solution, which sets the stage for two more questions: what supplements have fallen by the wayside, and what are the consequences of this? I hypothesized that the consequences for abandoning supplements would be more disastrous than many would guess, and may even set the stage for a resurgence of the Troubles, particularly in light of the British departure from the European Union. Overall, I found that Northern Irish peace is indeed fragile in a way that additional supplements to the Agreement could have prevented. Additionally, with the recent Brexit, the fragility of peace could spell disaster. Despite this, because the relationship between Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, and Great Britain is no longer as aggressive as it was in the twentieth century, it is unlikely that the Troubles will return to the same extent. However, as I hope to show, continuing the supplements would certainly limit crises in the future.International Relation