A blueprint of ELI: A new method for eliciting subjective probability distributions

A blueprint of a new method for eliciting uncertain knowledge about continuous quantities is presented. The direct realization of a proper scoring rule in a graphically oriented interactive computer program is one of the central features of the new elicitation methodology. Uncertain knowledge is internally represented through subjective probability distributions. However, in its interaction with assessors, the elicitation method uses a score representation. A proper scoring rule is applied to transform probability density functions into score functions. In order to study its merits, central ideas for the new method were implemented in an experimental version of the elicitation technique ELI. The results were promising and encouraged further development of the technique