Global food supply and the impacts of increased use of biofuels

In recent years prices on global food markets showed large fluctuations. The use of biomass as energy source (biofuel) in the developed world is frequently mentioned as one of the reasons for this instability. This paper compares the need for biofuel and needs for food and feed on global scale. A simple model is developed to estimate present and near future global needs for food, livestock feed and energy. We distinguish between developing countries, transition countries and the developed countries. The first group of countries needs extra food for their growing population, the second one needs extra feed, since the increased incomes among their population lead to increased demands for animal products. The developed countries require biomass to reduce the CO2 emissions of their energy use. On global scale the extra needs for biomass as a fuel (1100 MT) turn out to be larger than the extra needs for food and feed (800 MT each). At present the developed countries are food exporters, their produce is essential for several food insecure countries in Africa and Asia. The increased need for biomass for energy is likely to affect these exports and therefore affect food security in parts of the world. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved