Het meten van effecten van gevangenisstraf op crimineel gedrag in een niet-experimentele studie

Summary Estimating the effect of imprisonment on criminal behavior in a non-experimental study Using data from the Criminal Career and Life-course Study (CCLS) we examined the effect of firsttime imprisonment between ages 26-28. Simply comparing recidivism rates of ex-prisoners with offenders who have not been incarcerated would lead to biased estimates since imprisonment is likely to be meted out disproportionately to those offenders most likely to recidivate. Our results show firsttime imprisonment to have a criminogenic effect. The rise in conviction rates for ex-prisoners is largest when compared to offenders who had similar offending trajectories up to age 25, but were not convicted in the 26-28 period. Comparisons with offenders who were convicted but not imprisoned show a smaller, but still highly significant increase