Hopes, Hypes and Disappointments: On the role of expectations for sustainability transitions : A case study on hydrogen and fuel cell technology for transport

The aim of this thesis is to better understand the role of (changing) expectations for innovation and transition processes. It aims to gain insights in the processes leading to periods of hypes, followed by disappointment and the effects of such expectation dynamics on transitions. Empirically this thesis focusses on fuel cell technology. Already during the 1990s fuel cell technology became one of the most promising technologies to power the car of the future. Early optimistic expectations however could not be met and the initial expectations turned into disappointment. This pattern of initial high hopes followed by disappointment can be observed in various cases: electric vehicles, biofuels, or fuel cell technology to name three. Since these expectation dynamics apparently repeat themselves every few years in the automotive industry, it becomes inherently difficult to take decisions for the long term. In order gain a better understanding of the role of expectations for transition processes this thesis builds upon an analysis of the dynamics of expectations in different discourse spheres and shows that expectations dynamics differ between specific discourse spheres due to the characteristics and rules of selectivity of discourse spheres. Moreover the thesis addresses the question how expectations, and in specific expectation dynamics influence actor strategies. It scrutinizes the relationship between changes in expectations and changes in actor strategies and analyses the effect of changing expectations on actors strategies. In order to do so this thesis proposes to use the multi-level perspective of transition studies to differentiate different kind of expectations. Based on this differentiation the analysis reveals that expectations concerning future developments at the sectoral and at the socio-technical landscape level are relevant in addition to technological expectations. Whereas expectations concerning the future development of fuel cell technology as are most relevant to specific actor groups (e.g. technology developers), expectations concerning future developments at the socio-technical landscape level are more important to policy actors. In addition the analysis of communication and innovation activities of automotive manufacturers indicated that innovations that are envisioned to be part of a wider system transition are more prone to hype-disappointment cycles since incentives to hype are generally higher in case of such system innovations. The last chapter of this thesis shifts the focus to the governance of fuel cell innovation and shows that fuel cell expectations alone were not sufficient to trigger substantial policy support; only once they were linked up with visions and expectations about the future energy system and the future socio-technical landscape, supportive policy measures were initiated. Thus, the interaction and linking of different expectations is important. To conclude, this thesis shows that (1) expectations are shaped in different discourse spheres, which are all relevant to understand expectation dynamics, (2) expectations beyond technological expectations are relevant and that (3) expectations are interacting with each other and that it is useful to conceptualize expectations surrounding a technology as network of expectations