Human impact on fluvial regimes and sediment flux during the Holocene: review and future research agenda

There is a long history of human–riverine interactions throughout the period of agriculture that in some regions of the world started several thousand years ago. These interactions have altered rivers to human dominated systems with often negative impacts on fluvial environments. To achieve a good ecological and chemical status of rivers, as intended in the European Water Framework Directive (WFD), a better understanding of the natural status of rivers and an improved quantification of human–riverine interactions is necessary. Over the last decade the PAGES-LUCIFS (Land Use and Climate Impact on Fluvial Systems) program has been investigating both contemporary and long-term (centuries tomillennia) river responses to global change with the principal aims of: 1) quantifying land use and climate change impacts of river-borne fluxes of water, sediment, C, N and P; 2) identification of key controls on these fluxes at the catchment scale; and 3) identification of the feedback on both human society and biogeochemical cycles of long-termchanges in the fluxes of these materials. Here, we review recent progress on identifying fluvial system baselines and quantifying the response of long-term sediment budgets, biogeochemical fluxes and flood magnitude and frequency to Holocene global change. Based on this review, we outline the future LUCIFS research agenda within the scope of the PAGES-PHAROS (Past Human-Climate-Ecological Interactions) research program. Key research strategies should be focused on: 1) synthesising the data available from existing case studies; 2) targeting research in data-poor regions; 3) integrating sediment, C, N and P fluxes; 4) quantifying the relative roles of allogenic and autogenic forcing on fluvial regimes, extreme events and sediment fluxes; 5) improving long-term river basin modelling; and 6) integration of LUCIFS with other research communities within PHAROS, namely HITE (land cover) and LIMPACS (water quality and biodiversity)