PERAMALAN PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO (PDRB) PROVINSI BALI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES

<p><em>The purpose of this research is </em><em>forecasting the growth of the GDRP in Bali Province on 2011. The fuzzy time series method and Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing method used to forecast the GDRP in Bali Province on 2011 </em><em>by using the data</em><em> of Bali Province’s GDRP constant prices of year 2000 from first quarter of 1991 until fourth quarter of 2010. Then, the forecasting result </em><em>of both method</em><em>s compared by see the AFER and MSE value on each method. The comparison result shows the forecasting method by using Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing is 7.13% while using the fuzzy time series method is 0.64%, these shows the forecasting using fuzzy time series method have a higher accuracy rate compared to Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing method with the difference of forecasting error rateis6.49%.</em>