Modeling and simulation of photovoltaic systems in Indonesia: a technical evaluation at multiple levels

With over 8,000 inhabited islands, the distribution of fuels and electricity is extremely challenging in Indonesia. Photovoltaic (PV) energy systems could offer new opportunities and could become increasingly important for the future electricity mix of Indonesia. To stimulate this transition, it is necessary that existing barriers to a successful implementation of PV systems are indicated in order to be tackled. This thesis adds to this goal by enhancing the technical knowledge about PV systems in Indonesia. This has been achieved by modelling and simulation of PV systems. The main research question in this thesis is: What can be learned from experiences with and modelling of PV systems for the stimulation of PV in the future electricity mix in Indonesia? Since the successful implementation of PV systems depends on several factors, PV systems have been evaluated at three different levels: the national, system and product level. At the national level, the potential and costs of PV systems are modelled and assessed. For this purpose, a distinction has been made for grid-connected and off-grid PV systems. For both PV system configurations the potential nominal installed capacity and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of PV systems has been determined for each of the provinces of Indonesia. To assess the cost-effectiveness the LCOE has been compared with the generation cost of electricity. At the system level, a pilot grid-tied PV system - which has been installed in Jayapura in the province of Papua during this project - has been analysed. Jayapura regularly suffers from power outages due to aged diesel generators and a weak electricity grid. The performance of the grid-tied PV system in such a weak electricity grid has been evaluated. Subsequently, at the product level, monitoring data from this PV system are used to simulate the power output of the PV system, evaluating the appropriateness of existing models for the determination of the power output under tropical weather conditions. Finally, to increase the accuracy of short-term PV power output simulations, a new PV module temperature model has been proposed