Bayesian Methods for Nonlinear System Identification of Civil Structures

This paper presents a new framework for the identification of mechanics-based nonlinear finite element (FE) models of civil structures using Bayesian methods. In this approach, recursive Bayesian estimation methods are utilized to update an advanced nonlinear FE model of the structure using the input-output dynamic data recorded during an earthquake event. Capable of capturing the complex damage mechanisms and failure modes of the structural system, the updated nonlinear FE model can be used to evaluate the state of health of the structure after a damage-inducing event. To update the unknown time-invariant parameters of the FE model, three alternative stochastic filtering methods are used: the extended Kalman filter (EKF), the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), and the iterated extended Kalman filter (IEKF). For those estimation methods that require the computation of structural FE response sensitivities with respect to the unknown modeling parameters (EKF and IEKF), the accurate and computationally efficient direct differentiation method (DDM) is used. A three-dimensional five-story two-by-one bay reinforced concrete (RC) frame is used to illustrate the performance of the framework and compare the performance of the different filters in terms of convergence, accuracy, and robustness. Excellent estimation results are obtained with the UKF, EKF, and IEKF. Because of the analytical linearization used in the EKF and IEKF, abrupt and large jumps in the estimates of the modeling parameters are observed when using these filters. The UKF slightly outperforms the EKF and IEKF