Predictors of 30 ـ day Incidence of Coronary Artery Disease in Patients with Chest Pain

Introduction & Objective: The previous investigations show that cardiovascular diseases, which are spreading all over our country, account for most health and social problems. The objective of this study was to determine the relation between demographic factors, medical history as well as para clinical factors and Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) within a period of 30 days for patients with chest pain. Materials & Methods: This was a prospective cohort study. Patients referred to the emergency department of Tehran heart centre with a chief complaint of chest pain without ST ـ segment elevation were followed for 30 days. The outcome variable was coronary artery disease. The Poisson Regression Model was applied in order to identify significant predictors of outcome. Applying this model, we could calculate Adjusted Risk Ratio and 95% confidence interval. The data were analyzed by standard statistical tests using SAS and Stata software. Results: 609 eligible patients were enrolled. Of these 51% were male and 49% female. Based on the final model of Poisson Regression, variables like sex, blood pressure history, heart disease history, changes in electrocardiogram, WBC and CRP had meaningful relationship with CAD. Conclusion: We concluded that prognosis in patients with chest pain needed considering clinical factors (acquired through interview), electrocardiogram and lab findings. Also we were conducted not to rely on traditional risk factors such as history of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, smoking and family history of heart disease for prediction of the disease