Admissions Tests and the Probability of Academic Success in Higher Education. A Study in a Mexican State Public University

<span>The growing demand for admission to institutions of higher education, combined with the decreasing availability of the academic supply, has increased the need to apply selection criteria, among which are entrance examinations. This work shows an approximation of the relationship between students’ results in the areas of knowledge explored by the National Examination for Admission to Higher Education (<span><span>EXANI</span></span> II), and their scholastic trajectory. Analyzed was information available for the 1998 <span><span>EXANI</span></span> II results, and the academic path of 6,937 freshman students at The University of Veracruz (<span><span>UV</span></span>). For the analysis, conditional independence tests, as well as simple correlation tools were used. Without exhausting all the possibilities, analysis of the data suggests the degree of association between the examination scores and university performance.