Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering including cutting of carcasses. Transportation of live pigs between these stages was also considered. The pork chain simulation model was developed and described to simulate technical and economic performance of both individual stages and pork chains as a whole. Special attention was focused on the quantification of the way in which stages can influence each other's performance and profitability. The simulation model was used to analyse the distribution of costs and benefits along the stages of the pork chain using various transfer pricing systems. Besides the chain producing standard pork, three differentiated pork chain concepts were evaluated. The simulation model was also used to quantify the impact of pig welfare demands on the economics of the pork chain. Pig welfare perceptions were assessed from animal welfare experts, retailers and other consumer-related respondents using a questionnaire based on conjoint analysis. The estimated pig welfare perceptions and corresponding economics were used as input parameters for static and dynamic linear programming models to analyse the development of least-cost chain concepts satisfying increasing demands on pig welfare. Additionally, the optimization models were extended using multi-criteria- decision-making techniques to include the effects on nitrogen and phosphorus emissions and energy consumption in pig farming as well