State Regulation of the Regional Agricultural Complex Development: Assessment and Rationalization Issues

The article discusses the current state and the main trends in the development of agriculture (on the example of agricultural enterprises in the Vologda Oblast). Nowadays there is a trend of decline in the production of basic agricultural products. The insufficient financing of agricultural enterprises is one of the key reasons for this situation. Internal and external sources of funding can be such tools. As world practice shows, the largest share in the funds, which are at the disposal of agricultural enterprises, accounts for direct budgetary financing. However, in the Russian Federation there is another trend: over the last decades there is noticeable reduction in direct state support of agricultural producers. In addition, in the framework of Russia’s accession to the WTO there will be further decline in such support and simultaneous transfer of financial burden onto agricultural enterprises. Therefore, the government faces an acute problem of planning and forecasting volumes of state support and earnings of agricultural enterprises. In this regard, this work makes a forecast calculation of the amount of public support and the revenue size of agricultural enterprises. To make forecasts the author uses methods of econometric modeling and forecasting (in particular, the method of correlation and regression analysis). The forecasts are presented in 3 scenarios: most realistic, optimistic and pessimistic. The article offers recommendations on determining the actual needs of regional agricultural enterprises in the amount of state suppor