ESTIMATION AND PROGNOSIS OF QUALITY OF ATMOSPHERIC AIR AT REGIONAL LEVEL

Raising of problem. The problem of quality of atmospheric air takes a special place among problems of protection of a surrounding environment. It is caused first of all by vital necessity of atmospheric air for all alive on the Earth, influence of a condition of an atmosphere on global climatic processes and biosphere as a whole due to huge mobility of air weights with which harmful impurity can be transferred. These questions for industrial regions where the level of anthropogenous influence has reached critical size are especially actual. The Dnepropetrovsk area concerns to such regions also. By development of scripts of development of such regions and their territorial components there is a necessity for definition of possible consequences of anthropogenous processes, which occur (or can occur) in atmospheric air. It demands strengthening прогнозных functions of ecological monitoring, in particular on atmospheric air, at planning and building of territories, at a choice of the optimum script of town-planning. Purpose. To improve a subsystem of an estimation and the forecast of a condition of atmospheric air on an example of system of ecological monitoring «Pridneprov'e» the Dnepropetrovsk area by means of introduction of a complex of the mathematical models focused on large industrial region which will allow at presence of criteria and parameters to receive as statistical (for the short-term forecast during steady atmospheric processes), and dynamic estimations of a condition of atmospheric air, the forecast of changes of parameters of atmospheric air and distribution of polluting substances, and also their influence on an environment and the person. Conclusion. The offered approach allows to consider complex parameters of steady development, territorial, branch, social, economic and ecological, time aspects, opportunities of atmospheric air as a polyresource, provides the forecast and an estimation of a condition of atmospheric air in system of regional ecological monitoring at a choice and realization of strategy of steady ecological and economic development of territory